Newly retired couples who both worked are projected to lose nearly $17,000 a year on average in Social Security benefits if lawmakers fail to prevent the retirement program’s looming trust fund insolvency, according to new analysis.
A report by the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget also warned that depleted funds could hit retired couples at the same time as they face reduced health care access.
The warning follows a report by the Social Security trustees in June, which said that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will exhaust its reserves in late 2032 unless action is taken, around three months earlier than forecast last year.
Once the trust fund’s reserves are depleted, the trustees projected that retirement benefits would have to be reduced by an estimated 22% as there would not be enough ongoing payroll tax revenue to cover scheduled payments.
Based on a cut of that size, the CRFB estimates a typical, newly retired, dual-income couple would lose around $16,900 in annual Social Security benefits if the cut goes ahead.
The non-partisan think-tank also said that the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to exhaust its reserves later the same year, resulting in an estimated 11% reduction in spending that could threaten retirees’ access to health care while they face lower Social Security income.
The CRFB urged lawmakers to “urgently begin the work of restoring Social Security’s long-term solvency” to avoid the projected benefit reductions, warning that retirees “in every state will be impacted.”
“The time to act is now,” the report said.
What does the report say?
The report estimates how a projected 22% reduction in Social Security benefits would affect retirees based on factors including their age, marital status and work history.
Under the report’s projections, a typical single-income couple would lose about $12,700 a year in benefits, while a low-income dual-earner couple would lose around $10,200 annually.
For couples the CRFB classifies as high income, annual benefit reductions could reach $22,300. Although these households would lose more in dollar terms, the report notes that the cuts would represent a larger share of income for lower-income retirees, making them more financially disruptive.
Although the projected reductions remain substantial, they are slightly smaller than the CRFB estimated last year because the latest Social Security Trustees Report projects somewhat higher near-term revenue and lower near-term costs.
However, the report projects the reductions would grow over time as the gap between Social Security’s costs and dedicated revenue widens, reaching an estimated 35% by the end of the century if no action is taken.
What is being done to address the problem?
Lawmakers from both parties have put forward a range of proposals to address Social Security’s long-term funding gap, although Congress has yet to agree on a single plan.
Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of senators including Bill Cassidy, Thom Tillis, Dick Durbin and Tim Kaine introduced legislation to establish a formal process for Congress to consider recommendations aimed at restoring the program’s long-term finances, rather than proposing specific reforms.
Other proposals focus on raising more revenue. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Peter DeFazio’s Social Security Expansion Act would apply Social Security payroll taxes to earnings above $250,000, while Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Moreno have proposed eliminating the payroll tax cap so that higher earners pay Social Security taxes on all of their wages.
Others argue the solution should include slowing the growth of future benefits. The late Sen. Lindsey Graham previously supported gradually raising the retirement age to reflect longer life expectancies and reduce the program’s long-term costs.
Sens. Cassidy and Kaine have also proposed creating a government-backed investment fund that would borrow money to invest in assets such as stocks and bonds, with the aim of generating higher returns to help strengthen Social Security over the long term.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has also outlined its own potential reforms, including expanding the types of compensation subject to Social Security payroll taxes, limiting annual cost-of-living increases for some beneficiaries, and capping maximum benefits for the highest earners.
The Social Security Administration has been contacted for comment.
