The first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could form in the Gulf within the next day or two, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center said on the morning of Tuesday, June 16.
Now a “potential tropical cyclone” over southern Texas, the system has a 60% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Arthur as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, renamed the Gulf of America by the federal government. “The time frame for possible development is from Tuesday [June 16] to Wednesday [June 17] before the system moves inland,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva in an online forecast.
As of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, June 16, a tropical storm watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Tropical storms earn a name when forecasters describe them as an organized or organizing system with a warm central core and maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Arthur could soon form in the Gulf
The system will be trouble even if it doesn’t become Arthur: The hurricane center said that “regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding.”
“Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast,” the hurricane center said.
Live updates: Texas flooding continues as tropical storm tries to form
Heavy rain will be the primary impact
The primary weather impact across the Texas Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi River Valley this week will be the threat of widespread, heavy rainfall and flooding, said hurricane specialist Michael Lowry of WPLG-TV in Miami, in an e-mail to USA TODAY.
“The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate risk (threat level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall through early Friday for portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana and central Mississippi and Alabama.”
The forecast track map for “Potential Tropical Cyclone One” shows the system moving along the Gulf Coast and into the South over the next couple of days.
Already, radar indicates that as much as 5 to 8 inches of rain has fallen in parts of east-central Texas and central Louisiana since Sunday, June 14, Lowry said. An additional 10 inches or more could fall locally across areas of the Deep South this week, leading to numerous and significant flash flood events.
A combination of weather systems shroud the Southeast in clouds in this NOAA satellite image on the morning of June 16, 2026.
Flooding safety: ‘Turn around, don’t drown’
Motorists should avoid stretches of road prone to flooding during heavy rain and never attempt to drive through flooded roads, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
Most people who die in flash floods drown – often after driving into flooded roads and becoming trapped as their vehicles are swept away, the National Weather Service said.
In fact, the weather service said that more than 50% of flash-flood deaths happen in vehicles driven into floodwaters. Many victims are swept away when cars stall or float in moving water.
With this in mind, the weather service’s flood slogan reminds us to “turn around, don’t drown.”
Other impacts: Wind, storm surge, rip currents and tornadoes
Although the main threat will be heavy rain and subsequent flooding, in an 11 a.m. update on June 16, the hurricane center said there will be other impacts from the storm, including wind, storm surge, rip currents and tornadoes:
Wind: Tropical storm conditions – meaning winds of at least 39 mph – are possible along the coast.
Storm surge: Ocean water inundation of up to 4 feet is possible along portions of the Gulf Coast, from Port Bolivar, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.
Surf/rip currents: Swells generated by the system are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast.
Tornadoes: A tornado or two is possible through tonight (June 16) from the upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
Below-normal hurricane season expected
Thanks primarily to the hurricane-snuffing impacts of El Niño, a “below-normal season” is predicted for 2026 in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Expect to see between eight and 14 named tropical storms this season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook predicts. That includes three to six hurricanes, one to three of which could be major storms.
A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NHC forecast says Tropical Storm Arthur could soon form in the Gulf
