A dangerous weather weekend and start to the week is ahead across the Plains and Midwest with significant threats of tornadoes, hail and damaging winds through Monday.
New this morning: NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk for southeastern Oklahoma to a level 4 out of 5 risk (or a “moderate risk”) for the expectation of giant hail and a strong tornado or two.
On Thursday evening, an EF4 tornado with winds of 170-175 mph destroyed buildings near Enid, Oklahoma. It was the first EF4 in Garfield County, Oklahoma, since April 26, 1991.
Here is our latest forecast for each day of this latest siege of severe weather.
(MORE: Severe Weather Safety Tips)
Happening Now
A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving through parts of the South. More thunderstorms are expected to erupt in the Plains later today.
Areas under tornado watches or severe thunderstorm watches are shaded in red and yellow, respectively.
Saturday
The severe threat then steps up once again Saturday as a new boundary is expected to form.
Giant hail and a strong tornado are possible in the “very likely” zone on the map below, which includes Ada, Oklahoma.
In the areas in the darker contours, we expect severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes, especially in the evening.
Sunday
A potentially more serious severe weather threat looms starting Sunday.
A threat of supercell thunderstorms is in play in the Central and Southern Plains from parts of Texas to Oklahoma, Kansas, western Missouri, western Arkansas and possibly parts of Nebraska.
With enough warm, humid air and strong wind shear in place, these supercells could spawn strong tornadoes, in addition to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Monday
On Monday, this higher severe threat could spread to the Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.
Places like St. Louis, Kansas City, Little Rock, Nashville, Indianapolis, Chicago and Des Moines should all be on alert.
Flood Threat
This stormy pattern will bring more periods of rain to parts of the western Great Lakes either still experiencing flooding or where ground is already saturated from the deluges both last week and earlier this spring.
While we don’t anticipate the magnitude of rainfall we saw last week, over an inch of additional rain is a good bet in much of the Midwest through Monday. That could lead to at least isolated additional flash flooding and could slow the fall of rivers still in flood.
Locally flooding rain is also possible through Monday from parts of Missouri and Kansas into Arkansas and the mid-South region, even though some of these areas are in extreme drought.
Beware of flooded roads, especially at night when you may not recognize them as fast. Never attempt to drive through a flooded road. Turn around, instead.
(MORE: Flash Flood Safety Tips)
Recap
Thursday brought 17 tornado reports from Oklahoma to Iowa, as well as over 100 damaging wind and hail reports combined.
A rare tornado emergency was issued for the storm that tore through Enid, Oklahoma and the nearby Vance Air Force Base, warning of catastrophic damage and threat to life. The tornado produced damage consistent with at least 170 mph, making it an EF4 tornado.
The NWS office in Norman noted it was only the ninth time the office has issued a tornado emergency.
(MORE: Different Types Of Tornado Warnings)
Last Week’s Siege
The early-week breather was certainly welcomed after a busy stretch last week.
Last Friday alone, there were 96 tornado reports among the over 500 severe weather reports.
(MORE: How April’s Severe Weather Has Been Weird)
Data: NOAA/NWS/SPC
In all, there were over 1,300 reports of severe weather in the U.S. from last Monday through last Friday, including 154 reports of tornadoes, 532 reports of hail and 642 reports of thunderstorm wind damage or high wind gusts.
As you can see, some of the same areas that are under the risk of severe weather ahead are areas that have already been hit hard by severe weather last week.
Make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts, should severe weather strike.
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
