While still very warm, the next couple of days are shaping to be quite nice as dew points will be noticeably lower (in the mid 50s tomorrow and low 60s on Sunday) with high pressure from Canadian origins overhead.
By Monday, a subtle shortwave moving through the flow aloft will track eastward into the Appalachians. As this happens, a weak surface low will also develop and also track eastward into the East Coast as well. At this time, model guidance indicates that this low will track north of the viewing area, close to the PA/MD border, with an attendant cold front moving into North Carolina. Ahead of this front, heat and some instability will build with CAPE reaching 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will not be overly impressive, only 20 -25 kts or so. Given this, we do expect some thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front and there is the potential that some storms could turn gusty, but we do not anticipate much in the way of organized severe weather.
With the cold front south of us and high pressure building in, Tuesday is shaping up to be mostly dry across the Triangle although a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out to the south closer to where the frontal boundary will still be.
Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase once again as we head into the latter part of the week with broad troughing expected to set up in the East. We will have to watch Thursday closely as thge models indicate plenty of instability building in and deep-layershear of 35-40 kts, which would support a severe threat.
Have a great weekend!
Big Weather
