One of the biggest questions in analyzing potential corn and soybean market prices for the 2026-27 marketing year is the crop conditions in the Corn Belt and Plains States. In the Upper Midwest, crop conditions are much more variable than a year ago, when much of the region experienced good-to-excellent corn and soybean yields. Some areas of the Midwest have had excessive rainfall this Spring and early Summer, while other areas are dealing various levels of drought conditions. On the other hand, there are portions of the Upper Midwest that have had timely rainfall events and very favorable growing conditions, which has farmers quite optimistic about the 2026 corn and soybean yield prospects for the second year in a row.
Rainfall amounts across Minnesota and other Upper Midwestern States have been highly variable during the month of July, ranging from 10-15 inches total in portions on southeast Minnesota to less that one inch total in extreme southwest Minnesota and adjoining areas of northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. There was some drown-out damage and crop loss from the heavy rainfall events in early July; however, the crops in most areas were fairly well advanced which helped minimize the crop damage. In addition, there were several severe storms in July with strong winds and hail across the Midwest, which did cause some damage to the corn and soybean crop in some locations. The University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center at Waseca recorded 6.8 inches of rainfall during July, which was 1.8 inches above normal. As of July 31, the Waseca site has received 14.71 inches of precipitation since May1, which is very near normal for the growing season.
The areas of the Corn Belt that have been receiving timely rainfall during the growing season, together with above normal temperatures, have experienced some very favorable conditions for crop production. The 2026 growing season in the Upper Midwest started out with normal to slightly earlier-than-normal corn and soybean planting dates in many areas, with some delayed planting in portions of the eastern Corn Belt due to wet field conditions. Above normal temperatures from late May through July has allowed for rapid development of this year’s corn and soybean crop. As of July 29, the accumulated crop “growing degree units” (GDU’s) at the U of M research site at Waseca since May 1 measured 1,664 GDU’s. The 2026 GDU total is about 12.5 percent ahead normal at Waseca, and compares to late July GDU accumulation totals of 1,624 in 2025 and 1,583 in 2024.
The weekly USDA Crop Report released on July 27 listed the rating of the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 63 percent “good-to-excellent”, which compares to 73 percent a year ago in late July. Twelve percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated “poor-to-very poor” on July 27, compared to only 7 percent a year ago. There is a wide variation in the “good-to-excellent” crop ratings across the major corn and soybean producing States. The highest “good-to-excellent” corn ratings in the primary corn producing States in the U.S. were in Iowa at 80 percent, Minnesota at 77 percent, and Wisconsin at 74 percent. Some of the more moderate “good-to-excellent” ratings included 68 percent, in Missouri, 63 percent in Indiana, and 60 percent in both Nebraska and Ohio. The lowest good-to-excellent ratings for corn were 59 percent in Illinois and only 50 percent in both North and South Dakota. The “good-to-excellent” ratings for corn in late-July in most Midwestern States trail the very favorable ratings a year ago, when the 2025 growing season ended with a record U.S. average corn yield of 186 bushels per acre.
The latest USDA Crop Report listed 63 percent of the 2026 U.S. soybean crop as “good-to-excellent”, which is down from 70 percent in late July a year ago. The latest report showed 9 percent of the U.S. soybean crop with a rating of “poor-to-very poor”, which compares to only 6 percent in 2025. The highest “good-to-excellent” soybean ratings in the Midwest were Iowa at 80 percent, Minnesota at 78 percent , and Wisconsin at 70 percent. Most other States had much lower “good-to-excellent” ratings on July 27. This included Indiana at 63 percent, Missouri at 62 percent, Nebraska at 61 percent, Illinois and Ohio at 57 percent, South Dakota at 52 percent, and North Dakota at only 46 percent. Similar to corn, the higher soybean ratings in most Midwestern States in late July this year trailed the ratings in 2025, which ended with a record U.S. average soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre.
There is not a lot of historical correlation between weekly crop ratings in late July and final corn and soybean yields. Timely August rainfalls and favorable growing conditions can enhance final yield levels in areas that were not severely impacted by the excessive rainfall earlier this year or by the current drought conditions; however, lack of late season rain events can reduce final crop yields in areas that are quite dry. For example, timely rainfall and favorable growing conditions in August and early September enhanced the final 2025 corn and soybean yields in many portions of the Upper Midwest, as compared to yield expectations in late July. By contrast, dry conditions late in the growing season in the western Corn Belt in both 2023 and 2024 resulted in lower final yields compared to the expectations in late July.
The late July rainfall events have been highly variable across the Midwest, resulting in farmers and crop consultants in some areas being quite concerned about the 2026 corn and soybean yield potential. The lack of rainfall, together with the extreme heat, has put considerable stress on this year’s corn and soybean crop in a large portion of the western and northern Corn Belt. The latest “U.S. Drought Monitor”, released on July 30 showed various levels of drought concern in Minnesota, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin, along with the western half of Iowa.
Seventy-six percent of Minnesota was listed to be in “moderate” drought or worse on July 30, with 35 percent in the “severe” drought category, primarily in north central and northeast portions of the State, as well as in extreme southwest Minnesota. Twenty-two percent of Iowa was listed in the “moderate” drought category, primarily in the western third of the State. The most extreme drought conditions in the Corn Belt were in Nebraska, where 84 percent of the State was listed to be in “”moderate” drought or worse, with 40 percent of the State in “severe” drought and 23 percent in “extreme” drought. South Dakota also had quite high numbers in the latest U.S. Drought monitor, with 73 percent listed in “moderate” drought or worse and 33 percent shown as “severe” or “extreme” drought. By contrast, very little of the Eastern Corn Belt, the eastern half of Iowa, or the southern portion of southeast Minnesota showed any concerns in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
Some private companies will have Midwest crop tours later in August, which may provide some indicators regarding 2026 corn and soybean yield trends in the region. This will allow for some early projections for total U.S. corn and soybean production in 2026. These crop tours tend to concentrate on the core areas of the Corn Belt in Illinois, Iowa, Eastern Nebraska, Southern Minnesota, and Southeast South Dakota, which account for a large percentage of the U.S. corn and soybean production each year. The crop tours can give us some guidance on anticipated 2026 U.S. corn and soybean yields and total production; however, given the wide variation in crop conditions across the Midwest, we will likely not have solid U.S. yield and production estimates until well into the harvest season this Fall.
This article originally appeared on Farm Forum: Focus on Ag: Crop conditions variable across Midwest
