CLEVELAND (WJW) – A developing El Niño pattern will shape Northeast Ohio’s summer weather, bringing an active storm track, early-season heat and humidity, and a possible slowdown in extreme heat later in the season, according to FOX 8 Meteorologist Scott Sabol.
The outlook is based on a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions and eventually toward El Niño forming in the central/eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
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“It’s not an El Niño yet, but it soon will be as we head into the heart of summer,” Sabol said. “This means warmer than normal ocean water temperatures, and what that does is it transitions our pattern from the winter pattern that we’ve had to a pattern that allows for the jet stream coming in from the Pacific to become very active.”
Sabol said the shifting jet stream helped fuel an active weather pattern through early spring, including above-normal rainfall, frequent storm systems and severe weather events across Northeast Ohio and the Midwest.
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“We ended up with a very warm March, but a lot of transitions and, of course, a lot of storm systems coming in from the Northwest where we had above normal rainfall, a very active severe weather season in March, and pretty much in most of April,” Sabol said.
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He also noted an unusually active severe weather year, pointing to a sharp increase in warnings.
“Every county in Northeastern Ohio has seen a severe thunderstorm warning,” Sabol said. “We’ve had more than 90 of them, which is by far more than in any other year over the last thirty years.”
Humid, stormy start to summer expected
Looking ahead, Sabol said the early part of summer is likely to bring continued high humidity, frequent storms and a higher-than-normal chance of severe weather.
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“I think the first half of the summer, we’re going to have more humidity and more consistent heat than we will in the second half of the summer,” Sabol said. “I think we start the summer off with above normal rainfall and an above normal number of thunderstorm days with severe weather in June into early July.”
He said the pattern may shift slightly later in the season, with a gradual reduction in heat intensity.
Fewer extreme heat days than normal
“Notice we start to see a little more of a shift back to the west in July and August, and the heat also starts to back off a little bit here,” Sabol said.
Despite periods of heat, Sabol said he expects no major temperature records, with roughly eight to 10 days reaching 90 degrees or higher compared to a normal of about 14.
“Certainly, no significant records here when we’re looking at heat,” Sabol said.
He added that a developing El Niño could also influence tropical activity.
“If this El Niño becomes significant and the likelihood of that is increasing, it’ll be a less active hurricane season,” Sabol said.
Sabol said the evolving pattern could also play a significant role in long-range winter forecasting if El Niño conditions persist into the fall.
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